UC-280
Gold-Loan Disbursement & AUM Forecast
Forecasts disbursals and AUM one to twelve months out by branch, region, product and ticket band, setting funding and branch targets.
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The Challenge
Consolidated AUM is ~INR 63,798 cr with gold ~80% across 5,000+ branches, yet planning is descriptive BI and ML is greenfield. Funding and branch targets are set without a forward view.
How It Works
- Ingests loan, disbursal and closure history via read-only CDC.
- Seasonality-aware statistical and gradient-boosted models, back-tested.
- Feeds forecasts with confidence bands into dashboards and planning.
What It Removes
- Backward-looking planning
- Flat uniform branch targets
- Manual seasonality guesswork
Input Data RequirementsLoan and disbursal history, closures, gold price, festival/harvest seasonality
Output Format1-12 month AUM and disbursal forecast by branch/region/product/ticket band, funding and branch targets
“Branch targets and funding plans finally rest on a forward view, not last year plus a percentage.”