UC-209
Bid/No-Bid Win-Probability Engine
Scores every pursuit on win probability and expected margin from the firm's own bid history, with a plain-language bid/no-bid rationale.
14Build Duration
5-15xIndicative ROI
The Challenge
AEC public-bid win rates run 15-30%, so 3-6 bids are lost per win and over half of pursuit spend is unrecovered. There is no standardised P-win scoring, so the firm never learns from losses.
How It Works
- Assembles bid outcomes with client, sector, value, competitor and incumbency features.
- Calibrated ML scores P-win and expected margin with explainable feature drivers.
- Returns a ranked pursuit pipeline, reason-coded recommendations and structured debriefs.
What It Removes
- Effort burned on sub-20% P-win pursuits
- Ad-hoc, unstructured win/loss debriefs
- Gut-feel bid/no-bid decisions
Input Data RequirementsHistorical bid outcomes (Deltek Vantagepoint), client/sector/value/competitor features, relationship and incumbency signals, win/loss notes
Output FormatP-win score per pursuit, ranked pipeline, bid/no-bid rationale, structured win/loss dataset
“Before we spend days on a bid, this tells us how likely we are to win it and why - effort goes to pursuits we can land.”