UC-100
Monte Carlo P10/P50/P90 Well Budgets
Simulates rate, productivity and scope variables at sanction to produce P10/P50/P90 well budgets, cash flow forecasts and sensitivity views.
14-22Build Duration
5-15xIndicative ROI
The Challenge
Planning relies on historical averages and hand-updated spreadsheets, so contingency is sized by judgement. Team members use different approaches, producing single-point forecasts that are hard to compare.
How It Works
- Ingests AFE history, actual cost data, well cost databases and pore pressure and hazard data.
- Simulates cost and schedule variables to build distributions, Value-at-Risk and sensitivities.
- Planners size contingency and treasury phases cash from P10/P50/P90 outputs at sanction.
What It Removes
- Contingency sized by judgement, not distribution
- Single-point budgets with no confidence range
- Forecasts nobody can compare across the team
Input Data RequirementsAFE documents, historical well cost databases with variance and NPT causes, actual cost data, service contracts, formation and pore pressure data
Output FormatP10/P50/P90 cost distributions, Value-at-Risk and contingency recommendations, cash flow forecasts with confidence intervals, sensitivity rankings
“I can show a P90 number and the drivers behind it, rather than one figure with a contingency I picked myself.”