UC-800
Score Every Well Estimate Against Delivery to find the optimism before the AFE is raised
Scores every well estimate against what the same organisation actually delivered, and shows where the estimate is optimistic before the AFE is raised.
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The Challenge
Sodir records 18 OMV operated exploration wellbores with drilling days, but seven are PL 537 Barents wells from a licence OMV exited in December 2021 and none of the 18 is a development well, so Berling has no directly comparable OMV precedent. Sodir's project review gives plus 14 per cent against PDO across 24 projects, with three projects carrying 86 per cent of that variance, so the distribution matters more than the mean. The Hoffmann 105 day figure was a discovery contingent ceiling on a well Sodir classified dry with shows and is not used here as evidence of optimism.
How It Works
- The engine scores each estimate against what the same organisation actually delivered on comparable sections and operations.
- It shows where the estimate is optimistic, by how much, and which offsets support that view, including how thin the comparable set is.
- It does not change the estimate; the Well Delivery Manager decides, and the engine makes the optimism visible before the AFE goes to the committee.
What It Removes
- Estimates checked only against other estimates
- Optimism found after the AFE is raised
- A thin offset set treated as a full one
Input Data RequirementsWell estimates by section and operation, historic AFE versus actual cost and days, Sodir wellbore data for OMV and for comparable NCS wells, the current well design, and the assumptions register behind the estimate.
Output FormatRegister listing each estimate line, its delivered comparison, the gap and the confidence in the offset set behind it.
“I want to know which of my numbers is optimistic while I can still change it.”